What's Inside

Welcome to the 2021 NerdBall Fantasy Football Draft Guide!

Below, you will find rankings, sleepers, targets, avoids, deep-dives, stats, everything you could possible need in order to draft the best fantasy football team for this year. The links below will send you to every article we here at NerdBall have put out throughout the offseason to best prepare you for your draft.

Our rankings are for .5PPR and can be a great guide if you play in either a PPR or Standard league. These rankings will be updated continuously as we approach September so make sure you’re always staying up-to-date.

Looking for information on a specific player? Use our site’s search function to see everything we’ve written about said player so far.

Happy drafting everyone!

– Pete Rogers, Clark Barnes, Paddi Cooper, Nic Bodiford, & Jordan Smith


Full Rankings

Top 150 Ranks
Consensus Ranks
Dynasty Ranks
Superflex Dynasty Ranks
Rookie Dynasty Ranks
Rookie Superflex Dynasty Ranks


Quarterbacks

2020 was an unprecedented year for quarterback play in the NFL, with records set in a whole manner of statistical categories. We saw record scoring from a fantasy perspective with the average QB scoring 17.4 points per game, with the previous best coming in 2015 with 16.6 PPG.

The numbers we saw in 2020 were an anomaly due to the unusual offseason caused by the pandemic that led to defenses being less prepared than in previous years and were exploited by the league’s passers. Expect the numbers to move back toward the norm this year.

Top 30 Rankings
Bold Predictions
Sleepers
Targets
Avoids
Pick One: Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott
Podcast: QB Deep-Dive
Is Russell Wilson’s Jekyll and Hyde Season Last Year Reason to Worry for 2021?


Running Backs

This year brings a running back group that appears to be extremely top-heavy. Known names like Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb dominate the top end of drafts and the clear cut stars will shine this year. The middle round backs could frustrate fantasy managers with few of them clearly separating themselves. Savvy drafters can still find value from the depths of the position. There are young rushers, like A.J. Dillon, who’d find themselves in for monstrous workloads should their team’s expected starters miss time.

Top 60 Rankings
Bold Predictions
Sleepers
Targets
Avoids
Pick One: Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones
Pick One: Austin Ekeler, Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson
Podcast: RB Deep-Dive


Wide Receivers

There’s a lot of value to be had at the wide receiver position this year in fantasy, so don’t worry if you miss on the top tier names. Most of the wide receivers going as WR2s or even WR3s have legit WR1 upside. Given the depth at the receiver position this year, and the lack thereof at running back, stacking backs early and then picking receivers late will likely be a popular draft strategy this year. 

Top 60 Rankings
Bold Predictions
Sleepers
Targets
Avoids
Pick One: D.K. Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown
Podcast: WR Deep-Dive
Late-Round Wide Receivers with WR1 Upside
Wide Receivers to Buy Now and By-Pass
Ranking Second-Year Wide Receivers
Panthers’ Slot Battle Could Yield a Fantasy Gem
Finding Fantasy Value in the Bills’ Passing Game
Top Targets Based on NECC Consistency Rating


Tight Ends

There’s a lot of value to be had at the wide receiver position this year in fantasy, so don’t worry if you miss on the top tier names. Most of the wide receivers going as WR2s or even WR3s have legit WR1 upside. Given the depth at the receiver position this year, and the lack thereof at running back, stacking backs early and then picking receivers late will likely be a popular draft strategy this year. 

Top 30 Rankings
Bold Predictions
Sleepers
Targets
Avoids
Podcast: TE Deep-Dive
Top Targets Based on NECC Consistency Rating


Defense/Special Teams

Whether you play with D/ST or in an IDP league, we have you covered with our rankings.

Rankings
IDP Rankings


Divisional Deep-Dives

Breaking down each division in the NFL from a fantasy perspective, highlighting best picks, sleepers, and draft advice.

AFC East
AFC West
AFC North
AFC South

NFC East
NFC West
NFC North
NFC South


Team Previews

Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
Washington Football Team


Useful Stats

2020 NECC Consistency Rating
2020 Touchdown Dependency
2020 Team Red Zone Stats
2020 QB WAR/Fantasy Points Above Replacement
2020 Wide Receiver Receiving Stats per Snap
2021 Available Team Targets


Mock Drafts

Picking 1.01
Picking 1.06
Picking 1.12
NerdBall and Friends Mock Draft


Everything Else

What Does it Take to Win Your Fantasy League?
Best Rookie Landing Spots 
Worst Rookie Landing Spots
Regression Candidates Based on Touchdown Dependency
Breakout Candidates Based on Touchdown Dependency
Actually How Productive are NFL Rookies in Fantasy Football?
Breakouts and Busts Based on Available Team Targets
Breakouts and Busts Based on NFL Strength of Schedule