Tiers versus rankings has been a point of debate among fantasy football players for years, but I’m here to advocate for tiering one’s prospects. It’s especially important during dynasty startup leagues because you are likely drafting far more players than you would in a redraft league.

Tiering your prospects also helps a drafter make more decisive decisions when they’re on the clock. If your Tier 1 running back group starts to dwindle during the draft, you can see it, and perhaps still get one of those guys in the grouping.

Today, I want to talk about QB tiers. We already dropped my overall dynasty startup rankings, but now it’s time to add more context to the madness. We have 38 quarterbacks broken down into 5 different tiers.

The top tier consists of five QBs who hold the greatest potential fantasy value, not just now, but over the next couple of years. Additionally, they’ve already proved they can be a top fantasy option at a young age.

Tier 1

• Lamar Jackson, BAL
• Patrick Mahomes, KC
• Josh Allen, BUF
• Justin Herbert, LAC
• Kyler Murray, ARI

All five of these QBs have very distinct attributes. They’re all between 24 and 26 years old and can scoot either a little or a lot. QBs that can contribute on the ground are clutch, but you knew this. Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen have all been QB1 for a full season at least once already, and Herbert and Murray have a QB2 and QB3 finish, respectively. You know who these players are and they’re set and forget QBs.

Tier 2

• Deshaun Watson, CLE
• Joe Burrow, CIN
• Trey Lance, SF
• Trevor Lawrence, JAX
• Dak Prescott, DAL
• Jalen Hurts, PHI
• Russell Wilson, DEN
• Aaron Rodgers, GB

This tier is a little less consistent, but it contains young guys in their second or third season starting who haven’t come close to their ceilings yet, or veterans whose fantasy value may be a little more variable. Dak, Rodgers, and Wilson can all play at a QB1 level, but there are more factors for them in dynasty startup. Their age being the primary concern. The other guys can still swing either way, but their development is trending up more than it is down.

Be wary, one of these guys—who hasn’t played in like 18 months—just got suspended for 11 games. I still might drop him a tier.

Tier 3

• Matthew Stafford, LAR
• Justin Fields, CHI
• Zach Wilson, NYJ
• Mac Jones, NE
• Derek Carr, LV

This tier is also small, but it’s more like Tier 2B. They share similar attributes with Tier 2, but are either slightly less talented (Jones, Stafford) or have tough organizational/roster hurdles that may follow them beyond this season (Fields, Wilson), and Derek Carr is the Dak of this group.

Tier 4

• Tom Brady, TB
• Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
• Kenny Pickett, PIT
• Daniel Jones, NYG
• Kirk Cousins, MIN
• Carson Wentz, WAS
• Ryan Tannehill, TEN
• Matt Ryan, IND
• Desmond Ridder, ATL
• Jameis Winston, NO
• Baker Mayfield, CAR
• Davis Mills, HOU

The largest tier so far, Tier 4 is really a mixed bag, but can be summed up with one thought: they may not start next season or this season. Most of these QBs can likely give you serviceable starts in 2022 and some may take until next season. Beyond that, Cousins looks like the QB most likely to start next season. Tom Brady is here for at least another season, as is 37-year-old Matt Ryan. I still believe in Tagovailoa and am flirting with joining the Tuanon gang—it just really seems like they’re at least giving him a chance to succeed.

I’m also nearly convinced that Mills can be a league winner this year. Lots of garbage time, plenty of decent-to-okay weapons, and Pep Hamilton is the most underrated assistant coach hire in the league.

Other than that, the rest have reasons to not invest too highly in their stock. Pickett is the only first round QB of 2022, but I’m not sure I would have made him that choice. He can move with his legs, but he’s got to move from third on the QB depth chart in Pittsburgh. Tennessee drafted a replacement for Tannehill, Jones is on the hot seat, Wentz is on his third team in as many seasons, Winston feels like a bridge QB, and Baker needs to prove himself again.

Tier 5

• Sam Darnold, CAR
• Jared Goff, DET
• Malik Willis, TEN
• Matt Corral, CAR
• Jimmy Garoppolo, CLE
• Marcus Mariota, ATL
• Mitch Trubisky, PIT
• Drew Lock, SEA

The final tier is comprised of QBs that may or may not be starters, but that you don’t have to invest a lot of time thinking about. They’re guys who can be your second QB that you can hope put together productive starts either now or eventually. Willis already looks good in the preseason and was a lot of people’s rookie QB1. Corral has the biggest uphill battle, Lock may start (or Geno Smith, who’s to say?), and Jimmy G might get his time to shine again if a certain QB in Cleveland faces sufficient consequences, but you would also be banking on a trade.