Each week I’ll pick a couple of my favorite NFL player prop bets over on DraftKings Sportsbook, track my progress, and see how I do at the end of the year. Here are my best picks for Week 1.
Hit me up with your favorite props in the comments!
Mike Davis 63.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards – Over
The Atlanta Falcons only rushed for fewer than 64 yards twice in 2020, once in Week 11 at the New Orleans Saints in a 7-3 loss (yes, 7-3) and then again in Week 15 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While new head coach Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans, Derrick Henry missed this 63.5 yard mark thrice in two full seasons (31 total games).
Mike Davis was a little better than 50/50 on this one in games which he started for the Carolina Panthers last year.
While Davis is no Derrick Henry, he is the only game in town for the Atlanta backfield. The Falcons are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, an Eagles defense that gave up more than 64 yards rushing in all but one game last year. In the lone contest the Eagles didn’t give up at least 64 rushing, Joe Mixon managed 65 yards from scrimmage. This prop for Davis might be his lowest yardage total all season.
Related: Nerding Out NFL Week 1 Preview
Antonio Gibson 16.5 Receiving Yards – Over
When Antonio Gibson came in to the league, everyone wondered if the converted wide receiver would be able to run the ball effectively in the NFL. Going in to his second season, the question seems to be: Can Antonio Gibson be a receiving weapon out of the backfield? Well…. yes.
In the pre-season Gibson was utilized as a true workhorse back, racking up both rushing and receiving yards for the Washington Football Team. Unless Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s brilliant plan was to show us Gibson can do anything they ask of him to do, then fool us all by relegating Gibson exclusively to early-down-bruiser work, 16.5 yards might be Gibson’s first-quarter receiving yards total. Hit that over.
So those are my picks of record for Week 1 of the NFL. What are your favorite absolute locks this week?