Each week I’ll pick a couple of my favorite NFL player prop bets over on DraftKings Sportsbook, track my progress, and see how I do at the end of the year. Here are my best picks for Week 5.
We had another down week in Week 4, going one and one with these props. Antonio Gibson racked up 12 receiving yards, just shy of the 15.5 we needed for the over. Swing and a miss. Clyde Edwards-Helaire smashed the OVER on 58.5 rushing yards, rushing for 102 against the Eagles. This brings me to 6-2 on these props as we head into Week 5.
Nick Chubb, 84.5 rushing yards vs Chargers — OVER
This is a pretty big number, but so far this year, Chubb has put up 83, 95, 84, and 100 yards on the ground. The Chargers defense has been rather generous to opposing backs, giving up the fourth-most rushing yards to date. They rank bottom 10 in run defense per NEFF rating.
The Bolts defense, so far, has been willing to give up a lot of stuff underneath, keeping two safeties pretty deep, and the strategy has been a good one with the Chargers giving up the seventh-fewest points per game. Keep in mind, the Chargers have played the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Raiders, and the Washington football team when Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center.
This week, Ian Rapoport announced that Baker Mayfield suffered a torn labrum against the Texans, and boy, did Mayfield look off his game against the Vikings in Week 4. This is all pointing towards the Browns pounding the rock with both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, and so I think Chubb gets well north of 85 yards this week.
Cordarrelle Patterson, 66.5 rushing + receiving yards vs Jets — OVER
Patterson has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal open to the season for new head coach Arthur Smith and his Falcons. Patterson has hit 67 or more yards from scrimmage in each of the Falcons’s first 4 games.
The Jets defense has not been a complete embarrassment, at least as far as counting stats go. They’ve given up the 11th-most rushing yards but have been 12th-best in passing yards allowed. I’d mention they’ve done this against not the greatest competition, but the Falcons haven’t shown anything to separate themselves from the class of the Jets.
With Patterson putting up yardage and making big plays week in and week out, the 67 yard total just feels like free money.