Each week I pick a couple of my favorite NFL player prop bets over on DraftKings Sportsbook, track my progress, and see how I do at the end of the year. Here are my best picks for Week 8.
We had another 1-1 week in Week 7. Darrel Williams and the Chiefs had a tough day against the Titans, losing 27-3 (and it was never really that close). Williams only posted 20 yards rushing, so we missed on the over 56.5 yards.
Aaron Rodgers bailed us out, hitting the over on his 255.5 yards passing prop against the flailing Washington Footballians (he threw for 274 yards).
This week we’re going to change it up a bit. I’ve been using DraftKings Sportsbook for my prop bets, but I’m going to move over to Underdog Fantasy. I’m still going to call out my two favorite props, but then I’m going to list off what my “Pick-5” parlay would be over on Underdog (even though I’d highly recommend not doing a 5-prop parlay too often).
Justin Fields, UNDER 199.5 yards passing vs San Francisco 49ers
I don’t generally like picking unders, after all I’m an optimist. This Fields prop is too tempting to pass up, though. Fields has only thrown for more than 200 yards once in the 5 games he’s started. On the flip-side, the 49ers have held some pretty impressive passers to meager passing totals. The Niners held Kyler Murray to 239 yards, Russel Wilson to 149 yards, and Aaron Rodgers to 261 yards. San Francisco held Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts under 200 yards, too.
I’d bet the Niners will manage to control this game from the get-go, but San Francisco doesn’t have an especially explosive offense either. I see low-scoring, few plays, and more struggles from the Fields.
Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 79.5 yards rushing + receiving vs Carolina Panthers
Patterson has been a pretty sure-thing to beat just about every over-under number that has been brought before him in 2021. Against the rudderless Panthers, Atlanta should go back to the well, relying on their most-consistent playmaker in Patterson. Kyle Pitts is indeed coming on strong, but even if Calvin Ridley rises from his coma, there should still be plenty of room for Patterson to get over that 80 total yards.
Underdog “Pick 5” Parlay
As of Thursday evening, most of the props up on Underdog are QB and WR props. These are my least favorite as for me they’re just not as easy to call as running back over/unders. Having said that, if I had to pick 5 of the options available now, I’d go with the two over/unders above and:
Joe Burrow OVER 287.5 yards passing @ New York Jets
The Jets are in disarray and the Bengals are heating up. Rather than expecting the Bengals to get up early and run the ball to death, I’d guess Cincinnati will want to continue their air-raid even if they’re up big. Be advised, though, Burrow has only gone over this number twice this year.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 260.5 passing yards @ Seattle Seahawks
Nothing makes me reach for the Tums faster than betting on the Jaguars to do something well. But, this bet is also, at least in part, betting against Pete Carroll’s defense. I’m in a slight bind, but Lawrence has plenty of talent around him, and the Seahawks have been plenty permissive in 2021. So, I’ll hold my nose and add this one to the list.
Calvin Ridley UNDER 75.5 yards receiving vs Carolina Panthers
Have I mentioned how I hate picking wide receiver production for my over/unders? This one makes me uneasy, but Ridley has only gone over 76 yards once this season, and the Panthers are middle-of-the-pack when it comes to giving up receiving yards to their opponent. As it turns out, you need to pick 5 over unders for a pick 5 over unders article, so, here goes.