Welcome to the Fantasy Football Rundown: a weekly article written by yours truly in which I give at least one sentence on every single fantasy relevant player for Week 10. Starts, sits, sleepers, busts, DFS plays, you name it, I talk about it here. Be warned, this is a beast of a piece. If you’re looking for a specific player, I recommend using your web browser’s search function to head straight to said player. Otherwise, enjoy reading!
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Over/Under Points Scored: 48
QB Josh Allen — Injuries to offensive linemen Jon Feliciano and Spencer Brown effectively nuked Buffalo’s Week 9 prospects from the get-go last week. It’s unclear as to whether they’ll return next week, which is bad news as they’ll be less than 100% even if active. Jets DL Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, and Bryce Huff are playing very well as a unit but Huff was just recently placed on Injured Reserve (back). It’s a meaningful loss but the Jets’ front-seven is deep with contributors Folorunso Fatukasi and Shaq Lawson ready to fill the void. The Jets did take a big hit in their secondary last week though as safety Marcus Maye ruptured an Achilles tendon. It’s a brutal blow for a unit that was already missing its other starting safety, Lamarcus Joyner, for the year (triceps). Allen remains a high-end fantasy QB1.
WR Cole Beasley — The Jets skew heavily towards man defense which means this isn’t likely to be a Beasley Week:
Aggravatingly low yardage but #BillsMafia slot WR Cole Beasley is a machine vs. zone defenses: 8/10-33 right now. 5 mins left in the 3rd Q. Sanders' 5 TGTs are second most on the team.
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) November 7, 2021
Against the Jets, the shifty slot receiver is just a fantasy WR4.
WR Stefon Diggs — With it being a man coverage match-up, Diggs should see far less target competition from Beasley this week. He’s a back-end WR1.
WR Emmanuel Sanders — Safely a WR3 play, given the match-up.
WR Gabriel Davis — He’s Week 8 production is looking more like a flash in the pan. Davis is a WR6.
TEs Dawson Knox — Knox will contend for No. 1 TE honors this week. The Jets’ losses of DL/LB Carl Lawson and both starting safeties, Lamarcus Joyner and Marcus Maye, clear the run way for an explosive return to play for Knox. Elite TE1.
RB Devin Singletary — Zack Moss is currently in the concussion protocol and Singletary is set to smash:
#TakeFlight Jets are No. 1 in the NFL in RB receptions allowed per game (8) and RB receiving yards allowed per game (76.9). #BillsMafia #ZackMoss is in the concussion protocol & might not play. If that's the case #DevinSingletary is gonna go HAM. https://t.co/G0DHusAwpc
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) November 10, 2021
Singletary is a locked-in RB2.
Update 11/14/21: Zack Moss is active. Treat Singletary as a back-end RB2, Moss as an RB4.
New York Jets
QB Mike White — The Dink & Dunk King returns against a dominant Bills defense whose pass and run defensive units both rank top-2 per NEFF rating. As mentioned in last week’s Thursday Night Football Preview, “nearly 70%” of White’s 405 Week 8 passing yards came after the catch with 20 of his 45 targets being funneled to the running backs. That was against the Bengals though:
Really happy with #TakeFlight game planning this week. #RuleTheJungle can’t stop RB passing game & Mike White also honed in on MC/TJ last week. Good to see the RBs get featured this week. MC led team w/ 13 TGTs, TJ T-3rd on team w/ 6. pic.twitter.com/JX93BpiX2c
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) October 31, 2021
White’s not likely to receive that kind of aid from his playmakers this week. He belongs somewhere around QB20 in the QB rankings.
WRs Elijah Moore and Corey Davis — Moore went 6-of-6 for 67 in Week 8, playing just 36% of team snaps. Last week we thought he had a good chance of building in both the targets and snaps department. He did.
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) November 5, 2021
Moore ripped up Indy with a 60% snap rate, catching 7-of-8 passes for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. Davis has missed two weeks with a hip issue but is expected to return for Week 10. Positionally, there isn’t much overlap between the two but Keelan Cole could get pushed into Moore’s snaps upon Davis’ return. For now, both Moore and Davis can be ranked as fantasy WR3s though. Moore’s played too well and Davis is too talented for either to be ranked any lower.
WR Keelan Cole — Likely the odd man out. Just a fantasy WR5. He’s very good though so he could complicate things.
WR Jamison Crowder — High-floor WR4.
WR Denzel Mims — On the COVID-19/Reserve List.
TE Ryan Griffin — Fellow NYJ TE Tyler Kroft was just placed on IR (chest) which means Griffin should hog both snaps and targets moving forward. This is not a good match-up but the volume should be there for a 4-catch, 40-yard outing.
RBs Michael Carter and Ty Johnson — Carter and Johnson have dominated backfield snaps and touches since the bye three weeks ago. Carter’s averaged a snap rate of 66.6%, 16 carries, and 7.6 targets. Johnson’s close behind with 34.3% of snaps, 6.3 carries, and 5.3 targets. In fact, Carter’s 23 total targets during that span are No. 1 on the team and Johnson’s 16 are No. 4. That type of usage can’t be beat. Carter is as safe of an RB2 as Johnson is an RB3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Over/Under Points Scored: 50.5
QB Tom Brady — Top-5 QB.
WR Mike Evans — Antonio Brown is not ready to return and Chris Godwin is questionable with a newly reported foot injury. Evans is a fantasy WR1 no matter what but would rise to the position’s top-5 range if Godwin sits. It’s worth noting, Evans’ is a top-10 WR in our NECC consistency rankings.
WR Chris Godwin — If active, he should shred a WFT pass defense that currently ranks 29th in pass defense NEFF rating. Godwin remains a top-12 WR.
Update 11/13/21: Chris Godwin is expected to play. Both he and Mike Evans are top-15 WR with top-5 upside.
WRs Tyler Johnson and Breshad Perriman — Injuries have afforded Johnson an opportunity to carve out a role but he’s been unable to do much. Also:
Don't forget, #GoBucs signed Breshad Perriman this week. Perriman was in TB in 2019, Bruce Arians' 1st season as HC. Weeks 14-17, he avg'd 5 catches, 104.75 yards, 1.25 TDs. Godiwn sat W16/17, Evans sat W15-17 (both had hamstring strains). Arians knows what Perriman can do. https://t.co/UdmoCdaLoc
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) November 10, 2021
Perriman is a WR5 with sky-high upside if Godwin sits. Johnson is likewise a WR5 but with less scoring potential.
Update 11/13/21: With Godwin expected to play, Perriman and Johnson are in a battle for the Z-receiver role. Johnson would be a starter on 15 or more NFL teams but they signed Perriman for a reason; Arians likes his downfield ability. Roster Perriman in 12-team leagues if you have room for a bench stash. Fire either up in DFS.
WR Jaelon Darden — Not a fantasy factor.
TE Darren Fells — The team signed Fells this week with the intent of activating him on Sunday. Gronk’s now dealing with a back issue and Cam Brate/O.J. Howard aren’t cutting it. Fells is a TE2.
RBs Leonard Fournette, Gio Bernard, and Ronald Jones — TB’s last two games have shown us that game script can still alter the deployment of this backfield. In a normal, competitive game though (like this one should be), Fournette’s the guy. He’s an RB2. Bernard and Jones are RB5s.
Washington Football Team
QB Taylor Heinicke — TB’s pass defense is all over the place. Overall their pass defense is 10th per NEFF rating and the blitz constantly (39.7%, most in the NFL) but the QB pressure results are so-so. Their 41 passes defended and 10 interceptions are both top-10 in the league. Long story short, Heinicke is (as always) extremely volatile here. His ceiling? Top-12. His floor? Circa 9.5 fantasy points. He’s a Hail Mary QB2.
WR Terry McLaurin — Heinicke’s Big Time Throw rate of 1.8% is dead 32nd in the league (min. 50 attempts, PFF.com), in Weeks 5-9. This is a middle-of-the-road match-up but McLaurin can only be trusted as a mid-tier WR2.
WRs DeAndre Carter, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown — Brown has nursed a knee injury all year, which took a turn for the worse in Week 7. That corresponded with an increase in snaps/usage for Carter, an explosive return man whose 539 kick return yards are No. 2 in the league. WFT’s Week 9 bye came at a good time though and Brown returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday. Carter can’t be trusted in redraft. Brown is a WR7, as is the aged Humphries.
TE Ricky Seals-Jones — RSJ remains a high-end TE2:
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) November 10, 2021
RBs J.D. McKissic, Antonio Gibson, and Jaret Patterson — Week 10 will be revealing for this bunch. Gibson’s shin is still on the mend, and will be until 2022. McKissic is the most reliable back of the trio. Patterson saw the largest workload of his young career before the bye in Week 8. The Bucs’ front-seven is No. 3 in run defense NEFF rating and is limiting opposing RBs to just 55.9 rushing yards per game, 2nd fewest in the NFL. They are however, tied for the 3rd highest RB receptions per game mark of 7.2 but are quick to close on the ball carrier after the catch, keeping backs to 49.1 receiving yards per game, 11th most in the NFL. This game looks like it’ll be JDM catching quick-hitting passes before being tackled, while Gibson runs into the backs of his O-Line. McKissic is a high-end RB3, Gibson is an RB4, Patterson is an RB5.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under Points Scored: 51.5
QB Matt Ryan — ATL’s decreased their early game passing rate a tad since the bye but Ryan’s managed to go over 300 yards passing in 2-of-3. A date with Dallas offers decent shootout potential, although both teams could facilitate ground’n’pound exchanges. Ryan should have a more-comfortable-than-expected pocket with DAL DE Randy Gregory suffering a multi-week calf injury in practice on Wednesday. Expect a high-end QB2 outing.
WRs Olamide Zaccheus and Russell Gage — The underwhelming duo has stepped up in Calvin Ridley’s absence. They aren’t great but the volume might be right. Consider them tenuous top-50 plays who have a tough match-up this week. Best to look elsewhere.
TE Kyle Pitts — Pitts’ 47.9% slot rate is 15th among all tight ends, his out-wide rate of 33.1% is 5th, and his 19.0% in-line rate isn’t even in the top-100 (PFF.com). While it speaks to his abilities, it means his matchups have been brutal:
Kyle Pitts has run 69 routes lined up against CBs graded 69.0+ in coverage by PFF
That's exactly as many as Deebo Samuel and Marquise Brown. And more than Chris Godwin, OBJ, Tyler Lockett, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller.
Brutal CB-schedule for any rookie, let alone a rookie TE
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 11, 2021
Pitts’ usage is as good as it gets; he’s an elite fantasy TE1. Just know that he might play more snaps than we’d like against CB Trevon Diggs this week.
RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson — Continue taking advantage of Patterson’s WR eligibility on certain formats. His 111 2021 touches are 22nd among active RBs and his 47 targets are 3rd. He’s a fantasy RB1 every week.
RB Mike Davis — Just a change of pace, fantasy RB4.
QB Dak Prescott — Prescott made it through his Week 9 return from a calf injury unscathed. The Falcons’ 42.4% pass defense NEFF rating is T-24th in the NFL and their 18.6% QB Pressure rate is 31st. Prescott is my QB5 on the week.
WRs Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup — Perimeter receiver Gallup should return this week (calf) which means Cooper and Lamb will now alternate as the slot receiver in three-wide sets. ATL’s perimeter corners are bad and they’re playing with a backup in at slot CB. All systems go: Cooper and Lamb are back-end WR1s. Gallup is a WR3.
WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. — Droppable for now. Gallup is back and Wilson is dealing with a shoulder injury.
TE Dalton Schultz — Blake Jarwin’s on IR. Schultz has zero positional competition. Fantasy TE1.
RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard — Dallas opts for clock-killing when at home, as evidenced by their 64.5 offensive plays per game at home vs. 71.8 on the road. Both backs should see plenty of work. Zeke is an RB1, Pollard an RB3.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Over/Under Points Scored: 49.5
New Orleans Saints
QBs Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian — We’re unlikely to know which one’s starting until kickoff but Siemian played very badly as the starter last week. Bet on Hill being the starter but don’t bank on it yet. He’s a fantasy QB1 if given the nod.
WRs Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith — Callway and Smith are the only two Saints WRs who see the field as full-time players. Given their QB situation and their own talent deficiencies, both are risky fantasy options. Tennessee remains the most fantasy-friendly defense for opposing WRs though, allowing 38.7 .5PPR PPG to the position. Callaway is a matchup-based WR3. Smith is a match-up-based WR4.
WR Deonte Harris and Kenny Stills — Both men deserve DFS consideration. Harris brings added fantasy dynamism as a return man. He’s top-15 in both kick return and punt return yardage. In redraft, they are WR5s.
TE Adam Trautman — Average routes run per game Weeks 1-4: 12.5. Average routes run per game Week 5-9 (bye in Week 6): 29. Trautman is now a high-end TE2 with TE1 potential ROS.
RBs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram — Tea leaves to be read here via video and audio:
Worried about left high ankle sprain https://t.co/7qb4sW94Ag
— Adam Hutchison PT, DPT (@TheRealAdam_H) November 10, 2021
Dr. Hutchison is concerned for a high-ankle sprain. Kamara is currently a Wednesday/Thursday DNP with a “knee” designation. The mechanism for high-ankle is similar to the mechanism for an MCL sprain so stay tuned here.
Establish The Run’s Week 9 NFC Recap podcast wherein Evan Silva mentions that NewOrleans.Football beat reporter Nick Underhill told him to bet on Tennessee earlier this week. It’s likely, although not confirmed, that this is in reference to Kamara potentially missing time. Underhill also tweeted out that Kamara suffered a “mild [knee] sprain” on Wednesday.
Advice: If Kamara is active, he’s a volatile RB2. Ingram would sit immediately behind him if this is the case. If Kamara is inactive, Ingram would push for a top-12 RB ranking. The team trusts him:
|Player||Week||Snap %||ATT-YDS-TD||Routes||REC/TGT-YDS-TD||RZ TGT/ATT||Inside-5 TGT/ATT
|Alvin Kamara||Week 8||67%||19-61-1||21||3/4-15-0||2/5||0/3|
|Mark Ingram||Week 8||29%||6-27-0||9||2/2-25-0||0/1||0/0
|Alvin Kamara||Week 9||68%||13-50-1||29||4/7-54-0||0/1||0/1|
|Mark Ingram||Week 9||34%||9-43-0||11||5/5-21-0||0/1||0/0|
Side note: Tennessee’s front-seven is fantastic but LBs Harold Landry and Bud Dupree are both nursing injuries. They should play but Ingram’s outlook would be greatly enhanced if not.
QB Ryan Tannehill — The only real run/pass rate tweaks the Titans’ made last week in their first game without Derrick Henry was an increased passing rate when Tennessee and Los Angeles were within one possession of one another (-8 points to +8 points).
WR A.J. Brown — AJB is going to go OFF. NOLA perimeter CBs Marshon Lattimore and Bradley Roby are great but stud slot CB/safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is currently sporting a walking boot and the third-year Titan is running 38.6% of his routes in the slot. Brown’s a top-5 WR for week 10.
Update 11/13/21: Saints’ safety/slot CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has been placed on Injured Reserve.
WRs Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson — Last week, Julio played his second-highest snap share since Week 2 (74%) but was added to the injury report on Thursday (hamstring) after somehow escaping it on Wednesday. The veteran should see a healthy dose of Lattimore-coverage, making him a high-end WR4. His hamstring ups and downs can’t be ignored. Johnson is his direct backup and not relevant unless Julio sits.
WRs Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers — Both playing under 40% of snaps as rotational slot men. Too risky for redraft but smart picks in DFS given the aforementioned injury to Gardner-Johnson.
TE Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser — Strange things going on with the TEN TE usage. Swaim’s routes are fluctuating but he’s out-targeted Firkser nine to two over the last two weeks. Gardner-Johnson’s potential absence also makes these guys interesting. Fire one up in DFS. Roll with Swaim in redraft if desperate.
RBs Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols, and D’Onta Foreman — Peterson (age) and Foreman (early career ruptured Achilles) aren’t what they once were. Peterson operated as the lead ball carrier but McNichols owns the passing game and is getting rushing work as well. Those are the two to monitor. New Orleans’ coverage players are very talented but Gardner-Johnson’s injury affects all levels and LB Kwon Alexander isn’t as fast as he was pre-Achilles rupture–NO is allowing 47.2 RB receiving yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Consider Peterson a high-floor RB3 and McNichols a high-floor RB4.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under Points Scored: 47.5
QB Trevor Lawrence — Starting Indy CB T.J. Carrie and S Julian Blackmon remain on IR while starting CB Xavier Rhodes continues to battle a calf injury. As a result, the Colts have allowed the 3rd most passing yards (2,347) and the most passing touchdowns (23). Lawrence has flopped in can’t-miss situations a number of times this year though. He’s a mid-to-high QB2.
WR Marvin Jones Jr. — Still the No. 1 WR in JAC but Agnew’s forced role hurts. High-end WR4.
WR Jamal Agnew — Slot CB Kenny Moore is very bad. Agnew is perhaps and even better option than Jones as his blazing speed could carry him right past the secondary for a long score.
WR Laviska Shenault Jr. — Cannot be started in fantasy because he is playing out of position. Fantasy WR6.
TE Dan Arnold — High-floor TE1.
RB James Robinson — Robinson has resumed practicing and should be good to go for Sunday as a back-end fantasy RB1.
QB Carson Wentz — Has thrown two or more TDs in all but two games this year and Jacksonville has the single worst pass defense NEFF rating of all NFL pass defense units. Wentz is locked in as a mid-tier QB1 this week.
WR Zach Pascal — RB Nyheim Hines has resumed playing a prominent passing game role over the last two week and downfield receiver T.Y. Hilton has at least one game of action during that span. Still Pascal saw a total of 15 targets come his way in Weeks 8 and 9, solidifying his status as a top-50 WR in a potent Colts offense.
WR T.Y Hilton — Hilton (concussion) is trending towards playing this weekend. He’ll help as a field stretcher but isn’t anymore reliable than a fantasy WR5/6.
TEs Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle — MAC’s brief hot streak has cooled. Neither are redraft starters.
RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines — Indy opened as the biggest home favorite of the week (-10.5), which bodes very well for Taylor’s Week 10 outlook. He’s second only to Christian McCaffrey in this week’s rankings. Hines will be involved but his ceiling relies on Jacksonville turning this into a back-and-forth game. That’s unlikely. He’s a low-end RB3.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under Points Scored: 45.5
QB Jared Goff — Fantasy QB3 vs. the Steelers’ pass rush.
WR Kalif Raymond — With the signing of Josh Reynolds, Raymond’s No. 1 WR job is no longer secure. Both are risky WR6/7s.
Update 11/14/21: Josh Reynolds is inactive today. Raymond is a WR5.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown — Goff’s safety blanket brings WR5-viability to full-point PPR formats but he has almost no ceiling to speak of.
TE T.J. Hockenson — Has averaged 10 targets per game over the last three contests. Locked-in mid-range TE1.
RB D’Andre Swift — The NFL’s most targeted RB (57) should see 20 or more touches in this one. He’s the focal point of Detroit’s offense and Goff will look to him constantly to negate the Steelers’ pass rush. He’s a top-12 RB play this week.
RB Jermar Jefferson — No. 2 back Jamaal Williams (quad) is looking like he’ll sit again this week. Jefferson likely earned a little trust from the coaching staff in Week 8 after finding the end zone from 6-yards out. He’s a mid-tier RB4.
QB Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph — Back-to-back DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday plus a (funny??) presser where Roethlisberger revealed they lied on the injury report puts the veteran’s status firmly in doubt for Sunday.
Update 11/13/21: Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the COVID-19/Reserve List on Saturday night. Rudolph is a mid-to-low QB2. Diontae Johnson and James Washington drop in the ranks a little bit and become more volatile. Rudolph is not as good of a player as Roethlisberger but his arm is far stronger. Ray-Ray McCloud is not relevant. Pat Freiermuth should get safety blanket usage and doesn’t drop much either. Najee Harris was already a top-5 backup, given the match-up.
WR Diontae Johnson — No. 2/Z-receiver Chase Claypool will miss multiple weeks with a turf toe injury so Johnson is going to get all the work he can handle. Fewer than 10 targets would be a shocker. He’s a top-15 WR this week.
WR James Washington — Washington will start as the downfield/Z-receiver against Detroit. The Lions’ boasts the second-worst pass defense in the NEFF database.
WR Ray-Ray McCloud — The starting slot receiver is not a redraft starter.
TE Pat Freiermuth — Eric Ebron is expected to play this week but Freiermuth should maintain a larger snap share, route total, and target share given his studly performances. Rudolph will likely look to him as a safety valve as well. He’s a back-end TE1.
RB Najee Harris — A mid-week downgrade due to a foot injury. That’s concerning. If active, he’s a top-5 fantasy back.
RB Anthony McFarland Jr. and Benny Snell Jr. — There appears to be a competition for the No. 2 gig. McFarland is the more complete back.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Over/Under Points Scored: 46
QB Baker Mayfield — The Browns have been beaten up by injuries and COVID-19. Low-end QB2 in a tough matchup.
WRs Jarvis Landry — Cleveland slot receiver/defacto No. 1 WR Landry should have himself a day in this one. New England was forced to place slot CB Jonathan Jones on IR a few weeks back and his backup Myles Bryant hasn’t been anything to write home about. Landry’s a back-end WR2 with a very high floor.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones — 14 targets, 11 catches, 257 yards, and 3 touchdowns over his last three games. DPJ will have to play some against stud NE CB J.C. Jackson but will get plenty of shots at lackluster cover man Jalen Mills. He’s a fantasy WR3.
WR Anthony Schwartz — WR7.
WR Rashard Higgins — WR7.
TEs David Njoku, Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant — Too many cooks. Don’t start any in redraft.
RB D’Ernest Johnson — Kareem Hunt is on IR and both Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday. CLE’s No. 5 RB John Kelly is also on the COVID-19/Reserve List. Chubb could get cleared to play but it’s unlikely. Johnson should see an even larger workload than the 22 carries/2 targets he received as the fill-in Week 7 starter against Denver as there’s fewer mouths to feed and Johnson’s also been trusted to handle more pass catching work since then. It’s a tough matchup but DJ needs to be started as a top-12 back this week.
New England Patriots
QB Mac Jones — Cleveland’s dealing with a litany of front-seven injuries: Myles Garrett (foot), Takk McKinnley (groin), and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (returning from Injured Reserve, high-ankle sprain) but they boast an incredibly deep unit. Jones is still just a back-end QB2.
WR Jakobi Meyers — The best of the bunch. Still just a fantasy WR4.
Nelson Agholor — WR7.
Kendrick Bourne — WR7.
TE Hunter Henry — Has scored a touchdown in five of the last six games. He’s a TE1.
TE Jonnu Smith — TE3.
RBs Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor — Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are in the concussion protocol and have been unable to practice on Wednesday or Thursday. If both get cleared, Harris remains a high-end RB2. Stevenson and Bolden would be nebulous RB4s. If it’s just Stevenson active, he’d become an RB2. If neither can go, Bolden and Taylor would be RB3s–Bolden of the high-end variety with a top-20 ceiling and Taylor of the low-end variety.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under Points Scored: 48.5
QB Kirk Cousins — Mike Zimmer’s solution to Minnesota’s offensive woes has been to run more often early in the game, thus forcing Cousins to throw against pass defense packages on 3rd down and in throughout the second-half. Zimmer needs to be fired and the front office cleared out. Cousins is a mid-tier QB2.
WRs Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson — Both MIN WRs are top-15 in NECC consistency ratings (min. 8 games) this year. They haven’t quite had the explosive performances we’re accustomed too but it’s very rare that they will lose you a match-up. Both men are WR2s this week.
WR K.J. Osborn and TE Tyler Conklin — MIN is alternating between Osborn and Conklin for the No. 3 pass catcher job based on match-up. This is a Conklin week–LAC is allowing 12.9 .5PPR TE PPG, 8th most in the league this year. He’s a top notch streaming option.
RB Dalvin Cook — A thread on the allegations against Dalvin Cook by Drew Davenport. We don’t know what the outcome of the case will be but we do know that Cook has had events like this in his past. For the time being, he’s an elite RB1. The Chargers’ run defense NEFF rating is the worst in the league. Alexander Mattison must be rostered in all formats.
Los Angeles Chargers
QB Justin Herbert — The Herbert/Keenan Allen/Mike Williams trio is going to go OFF:
Vikings cornerback ranks in PFF coverage grade this season:
Patrick Peterson (hamstring, IR): 67th out of 128
Cameron Dantzler: 84th
Bashaud Breeland: 95th
Mackensie Alexander: 114th pic.twitter.com/3pzgyJXXhv
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 10, 2021
Herbert should be ranked second only to Lamar Jackson this week.
WR Keenan Allen — Allen is going to eviscerate Mackensie Alexander. Mid-tier WR1.
WR Mike Williams — Slowed by a knee injury in recent weeks, Week 10’s match-up is a healing elixir for BMW. High-end WR2.
WRs Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton — The No. 3 receiver job has begun to swing in Palmer’s direction. Given the low-volume workloads he’s getting, Palmer is still just a WR6 in redraft but DFS lineups with Chargers stacks could include him.
TEs Jared Cook, Donald Parham, and Stephen Anderson — Last week we suggested both Cook and Parham were good options, given the matchup against Philly. HC Brandon Staley went all-in on that match-up, even getting No. 3 TE Anderson involved. The LAC TEs went a perfect 11-of-11 for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns. We don’t yet know if S Harrison Smith will be activated from the COVID-19/Reserve List but this could be another exploitable match-up for LA. Throw darts with either Cook or Parham in redraft. Anderson can be used in DFS.
RB Austin Ekeler — Ekeler should eat against a Minnesota front that’s likely to be without DT Michael Pierce and LB Anthony Barr. Top-5 fantasy back.
RB Joshua Kelley — Kelley is the back to roster while Justin Jackson works through his quad injury.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under Points Scored:
QBs P.J. Walker and Cam Newton — Arizona will be missing S Budda Baker, DL J.J. Watt (IR), DL Jordan Phillips, and backup S James Wiggins. Walker is expected to start but Newton will be active. Unless we get confirmation that Newton is a surprise starter, both should be avoided.
WR D.J. Moore — Volatile WR3.
WR Robby Anderson — WR7.
WR Terrace Marshall — WR7.
TEs Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas — TE3s.
RB Christian McCaffrey — No setbacks last week (hamstring). They’re going to give him everything he can handle. Once again, McCaffrey is the No. 1 overall RB in fantasy.
RB Ameer Abdullah — Abdullah has leap-frogged Chuba Hubbard as the team’s No. 2 back/passing game specialist. He’s a dicey RB4.
QB Kyler Murray — There’s some confusion as to the type of ankle sprain Murray suffered two weeks ago but reports this week have been very positive. The Eagles’ defense can’t handle him. He’s a high-end QB1.
WRs A.J. Green and Christian Kirk — This one’s interesting. Kirk dominated as the team’s X-receiver (6-of-6 for 91 yards) in DeAndre Hopkins’ (hamstring) and A.J. Green’s (COVID-19) absences last week. Hopkins is likely to sit this one out again but Green (COVID-19) is expected to return. Green should relegate fill-in WR Antoine Wesley to the bench. Most likely outcome: Green operates as the X, glued to the perimeter while Kirk stretches the field both from the slot and the perimeter. Consider Green a high-floor WR3. Start Kirk as a high-end WR3.
WR Rondale Moore — Moore is just a line-of-scrimmage slot weapon at this point. It’s a shame. If active (concussion/neck), he’s just a WR5.
TE Zach Ertz — Murray’s return puts Ertz back on the back-end of the TE1 radar. Should Moore be unable to play, Ertz would be a major target-benefactor.
RB James Conner — Chase Edmonds suffered a high-ankle sprain part way through last week’s game and Conner posted season-highs in snaps (77%), routes (20, PFF.com), targets (5), and carries (21). Eno Benjamin will factor in, likely as a JV-esque Edmonds, but Conner needs to be treated as a fantasy RB1 this week.
RB Eno Benjamin — Edmonds is at risk of a four-week absence. Benjamin should be rostered by any RB-needy team in 100% of leagues. He’s a borderline RB3/4 against CAR. If Moore sits, Benjamin should take two or three of his would-be targets.
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
Over/Under Points Scored: 45.5
QB Jalen Hurts — Elite QB1. Most of the standout members of Denver’s front-seven are either out for the year due to injury or were traded away.
WR DeVonta Smith — Smith got banged up last week but dominated while on the field. Curiously, he ran a season-high 40.9% of his routes in the slot (PFF.com). Let’s hope that keeps up. He’s a fantasy WR3.
WR Quez Watkins — Watkins is a WR5 in this one but he has sneaky upside. Denver placed starting slot CB Bryce Callahan on IR last week.
WR Jalen Reagor — Ignore.
TE Dallas Goedert — Fantasy TE1.
RBs Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell — Howard and Scott are the top dogs here. Howard saw a massive increase in touches from Week 8 to Week 9. Scott’s slightly decreased. Gainwell’s plummeted–he did score on one of his two touches but the latter number is the point. Denver’s intended front-seven is now missing edge rushers Bradley Chubb (IR) and Von Miller (trade) as well as inside linebackers Josey Jewell and run-stopping dynamo Alexander Johnson. Start Howard as a confident RB2. Scott is a high-end RB4. Gainwell’s a low-end RB4.
QB Teddy Bridgewater — Denver may be without tackles Garrett Bolles and Bobby Massie as well as guard Dalton Risner. Monitor the situation closely as Bridgewater falls from a mid-tier QB2 to a borderline QB2/3.
WR Courtland Sutton — Sutton is a high-end WR4 here. Lots of receiving weapons and his downfield style won’t mesh well with a banged up offensive line.
WR Tim Patrick — Highly efficient low-volume WR5.
WR Jerry Jeudy — Jeudy has to square off with stud slot CB Avonte Maddox. Given the O-line woes, expect Bridgewater to look Jeudy’s way though as he’ll be more available on quick-hitting slot routes. He’s a top-36 WR.
TE Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam — LAC TEs got the job done against them last week. They’re risky but are both on the radar as TE2 streaming options.
RBs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams — Gordon continues to be a buy-low. The entirety of fantasy football twitter calls for Williams to get more work while Gordon posts outings like last week’s—21 carries, 80 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 targets, 2 receptions, and 15 receiving yards. Williams’ 111 rushing yards and 17 carries were great, but Gordon’s crushing it as well as Denver’s lead back. Gordon is a mid-tier RB2. Williams is a back-end RB2.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Over/Under Points Scored: 51
QB Russell Wilson — This could be a slow-paced slog that fails to hit the over:
There are four teams averaging fewer than 60 plays per game this season. Two of them, the Seahawks (54.6 plays/game) and the Packers (59.4 plays/game), play against each other on Sunday.
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 11, 2021
Wilson is likely to be very rusty as part of his rehab was teaching himself how to grip/throw a ball again. Wilson’s just a mid-tier QB2 until he proves otherwise.
WR D.K. Metcalf — A rehabbing Wilson is still better than Geno Smith. Metcalf is a mid-to-high WR2 against a Jaire Alexander-less defense. As an aside, Metcalf now rests his foot on Thursdays.
WR Tyler Lockett — High-floor WR3. Wilson is going to look for the players he trusts.
WR Freddie Swain — Well outside of the position’s top-50.
TEs Gerald Everett and Will Dissly — Everett should return to TE2 relevance with Wilson at the helm. Wilson could look to his close friend Dissly though. The latter is a TE3 with wonky DFS appeal.
RBs Chris Carson and Alex Collins — One of these two will be Seattle’s lead back in Week 10 as Carson (neck) has resumed practicing. The Packers’ 26th ranked run defense per NEFF unit is ripe for the picking but we don’t yet know if Carson will be active. If so, he slides in as an RB2. For now, treat Collins as an RB3.
Green Bay Packers
QB Aaron Rodgers — Rodgers should be back with a vengeance this week. He’s a mid-tier QB1.
WR Davante Adams — Second only to LAR’s Cooper Kupp.
WR Randall Cobb — We’ve been picking on Seattle’s slot patchwork slot coverage all year.
LFG!!! My Week 8 Must-Start #DUUUVAL slot receiver Jamal Agnew popped off against the #Seahawks . Team-high 12 TGTs, 6 receptions for 38 yards/1 TD + 85 return yards #FantasyFootball #NerdingOut https://t.co/VZ7j6kJXy2
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) October 31, 2021
Keep it up this week. S Marquise Blair is unlikely to play–it wouldn’t matter if he did, he’s bad–so underwhelming CB Ugo Amadi is left to be lit up by himself on Sunday. Cobb is a fantasy WR3.
WR Allen Lazard — WR6.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling — WR6.
WR Amari Rodgers — Ignore.
TE Josiah Deguara — The post-Robert Tonyan world is bleak. TE3.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under Points Scored: 53.5
Kansas City Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes — Mahomes 2020 regular season games vs. LV: 34-of-45 for 348 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 4 carries for 16 yards and 22-of-43 for 340 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 6 carries for 21 yards, and 1 touchdown. Consider him a back-end QB1 but this really should be a blow-up spot.
WR Tyreek Hill — He’s averaged 14.5 targets over the last two weeks. Locked-in WR1.
WR Mecole Hardman — WR6.
WRs Josh Gordon, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson — Not fantasy relevant.
TE Travis Kelce — Elite TE1.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams — CEH may actually play this week. If so, he’s a back-end RB2. DW isn’t great but he’s likely earned a little more work than he was seeing with CEH healthy previously. If the latter is inactive, Williams is likewise a back-end RB2.
Las Vegas Raiders
QB Derek Carr — Carr’s 2020 regular season games vs. KC: 23-of-31 for 275 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 carries, 6 rushing yards and 22-of-31 for 347 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 4 carries for 1 yard. KC is 28th in pass defense NEFF rating. Carr’s a locked-in QB1.
WR Hunter Renfrow — With Henry Ruggs off the roster last week, Renfrow saw 9 targets for the first time since Week 1 and caught 7 of them for 49 yards and 1 touchdown. He’s the unquestioned go-to WR now. Think of him like Jarvis Landry–a high-floor, back-end WR2.
WR Bryan Edwards — WR7.
Zay Jones — WR8.
TE Darren Waller — Like Renfrow, Waller also had his highest target total since Week 1 last week (11), catching 7 passes for 92 yards. Elite TE1.
RB Josh Jacobs — Jacobs’ one game dual threat blip a while back was just… a blip. To LV, he’s a north/south banger who they throw passes to occasionally. The return of DT Chris Jones three weeks ago has significantly improved KC’s run D as well. Jacobs is just a back-end RB2.
RB Kenyan Drake — Drake’s an RB4.