Weather, weather, and more weather is the theme of the Week 16 NFL DFS slate. Because of weather and other factors, 6 of the 10 games on the main slate on DraftKings in Week 16 have a projected total of 41.5 points or lower.
Of the four games with projected totals of 41.5 points or higher, only three of the teams involved in those games have projected totals of 24 points or higher. Those three teams are the Kansas City Chiefs, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Dallas Cowboys.
Even with a limited number of games and weather concerns, here are a handful of my favorite stacks for the Week 16 main slate on DraftKings. Hopefully everyone has a fantastic holiday season filled with profit this weekend!
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) + Travis Kelce ($8,000) + Jerick McKinnon ($5,900) or JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800)
Mahomes has emerged as the new favorite to win MVP this season and for good reason. The All-Pro quarterback for the Chiefs has earned the 300-yard bonus in eight of his last nine games and he’s posted 25-plus points in six of his last eight games.
There isn’t a tight end locked into a larger role than Kelce as he’s received seven-plus targets in all but one game this season and the Seahawks give up the second-most points per game to TEs. McKinnon has 15 receptions for 182 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last two weeks while Smith-Schuster has garnered 21 targets in the last two weeks. Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are potential dart throws in GPPs on Saturday.
Bring-back options: DK Metcalf ($7,100), Kenneth Walker ($6,400), Marquise Goodwin ($4,300), Noah Fant ($3,400)
Metcalf could see an expanded role this week with Tyler Lockett ruled out due to a broken hand. Walker, Goodwin, and Fant are all questionable to play on Saturday, but Pete Carroll expects all of them to be active. The Chiefs allow the seventh-most points per game to slot WRs and Goodwin should replace Lockett in the slot. That being said, Goodwin will be the most popular bring-back player due to his salary.
Kirk Cousins ($6,300) + Justin Jefferson ($9,300) + TJ Hockenson ($4,900) or KJ Osborn ($4,500)
The Vikings are playing at home in a dome this week and Cousins has notched 28-plus points and 400-plus yards in back-to-back games. The Giants have the 21st-ranked pass NEFF defense and Cousins should continue having success airing it out for the third consecutive week.
Jefferson is the clear No. 1 choice to stack with Cousins as he’s boasting a 28.4% target share and he’s registered 32-plus points in three of his last four games. Hockenson has gotten six-plus targets in seven straight games and he’s under $5,000 on DraftKings for the first time since Week 9. Osborn has combined for 15 receptions, 195 yards, and 2 touchdowns in the last two games. Thielen’s role has declined, but he’s still viable due to his touchdown upside in the red zone.
Bring-back options: Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Darius Slayton ($5,200), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100), Daniel Bellinger ($3,300)
Barkley bounced back from a 6.8-point performance in Week 14 where he was limited by a neck injury by scoring 23 points in Week 15. Slayton and the other WRs on the Giants could excel on Saturday with the Vikings allowing the second-most points per game to WRs this season. Between Hodgins and Richie James, I prefer Hodgins if I’m looking to save salary. Bellinger is also viable with his red-zone usage this season.
Dak Prescott ($6,100) + CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) + Dalton Schultz ($4,200) or Michael Gallup ($4,200)
Another game taking place in a dome is the much-anticipated one between the Eagles and the Cowboys. While the Eagles won’t have Jalen Hurts, Prescott could be overlooked despite his salary being the lowest it has been all season on DraftKings.
Despite the Eagles allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to WRs as a whole, they allow the 17th most points per game to slot WRs, which benefits Lamb. Schultz has commanded five-plus targets in six of his last eight games and his red-zone usage makes him a solid option. Gallup has struggled, but he’s easily affordable to stack with Prescott. Noah Brown is also worth consideration in Cowboys stacks.
Bring-back options: A.J. Brown ($8,100), DeVonta Smith ($6,600), Miles Sanders ($6,200), Dallas Goedert ($4,500)
Even though Hurts won’t be throwing the ball, Gardner Minshew is a viable backup that should be able to get the ball to Brown and Smith. The Cowboys are giving up the fourth-most points per game to WRs in the last four weeks. The Eagles have iterated that they need to get Sanders more involved after he scored a season-low 2.9 points in Week 15. Goedert was activated off injured reserve this week and expects to play on Saturday, so he likely won’t be under $5,000 for much longer.
Geno Smith ($5,800) + DK Metcalf ($7,100) + Marquise Goodwin ($4,300) or Noah Fant ($3,400)
Teams are typically forced to throw the ball more when facing the Chiefs due to having to keep up with Mahomes. Even though it will be cold on Saturday and the Seahawks have tapered off in recent weeks, Smith should be able to return value at his current salary as he’s scored 20-plus points in five of his last six games.
Metcalf already has a 25.2% target share this season and that could balloon even more on Saturday with Lockett sidelined. Goodwin is a fantastic value if he’s active as he should replace Lockett in the slot. Fant has caught a touchdown in two of his last three games and is a viable salary-relief option at tight end. You can go ultra-risky by using Will Dissly as he’s $2,700 and the Seahawks could go with more two tight-end sets with Lockett inactive.
Bring-back options: Travis Kelce ($8,000), Jerick McKinnon ($5,900), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)
Kansas City’s offense still goes through Kelce and paying up at tight end is always a viable way to be different in GPPs. McKinnon has seen increased snaps in recent weeks and has become a reliable option for Mahomes to target out of the backfield. Smith-Schuster has looked more comfortable with Mahomes in the last two games while Pacheco has gotten 13-plus carries in six straight games and he faces a Seahawks defense that is giving up the second-most points per game to RBs.
Daniel Jones ($5,600) + Darius Slayton ($5,200) + Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100) or Daniel Bellinger ($3,300)
I debated putting Sam Darnold here, but he hasn’t exactly lit it up despite facing a pass-funneling defense of the Lions. Jones gets to face a mediocre Vikings defense that is allowing the fifth-most points per game to QBs in a dome on Saturday and he gives us a solid rushing floor with 5.9 non-passing PPG (fifth-best among QBs).
Only the Titans are bleeding more points per game to WRs than the Vikings, so despite the lack of consistent passing production, the Giants’ WRs should thrive in Week 16. James and Bellinger are the two options under $4,000 that are viable on the Giants, though, I’d prefer to try to get Hodgins in my lineups instead.
Bring-back options: Justin Jefferson ($9,300), Dalvin Cook ($7,200), TJ Hockenson ($4,900), KJ Osborn ($4,500)
No one has done much to slow down Jefferson this season and the Giants likely won’t be the team to contain him on Saturday. Cook is always a big-play threat, but the Giants allow the second-most yards per attempt and the most yards per reception to RBs, so he could be in for a massive day in Week 16. Hockenson and Osborn are formidable options for under $5,000 on DraftKings while Thielen is a risky play where you’re essentially hoping to get a touchdown from him to return value.