Welcome to Week 13 NFL DFS Pick One where I make my selection from a group of similarly priced players on DraftKings from each of the positions and pick the one I’d take when building my Sunday main slate lineups.
Justin Fields vs Green Bay Packers ($7,400), Justin Herbert @ Las Vegas Raiders ($7,200) or Joe Burrow vs Kansas City Chiefs ($6,900)
My Pick – Justin Herbert
I like all of these options this week but Herbert is coming of his best week of the season last week where he had 28.8 points in the last-gasp win over the Cardinals and this week he faces the bottom rated pass defense per my NEFF Ratings in the Raiders in what should be a highly competitive encounter with the Raiders coming off back to back wins.
Saquon Barkley vs Washington Commanders ($8,200), Derrick Henry @ Philadelphia Eagles ($8,100) or Nick Chubb @ Houston Texans ($8,000)
My Pick – Nick Chubb
Fire up Nick Chubb against the defense that has allowed the most points to running backs, and an average of 25 points to running backs with at least 15 rushing attempts against them. Chubb will certainly take full advantage of his touches, ranking eighth among RBs in PER rating (0.91 points per touch).
Najee Harris @ Atlanta Falcons ($6,100), Jeff Wilson @ San Francisco 49ers ($6,100) or Jamaal Williams vs Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,000)
My Pick – Jamaal Williams
Williams is still doing the majority of the heavy lifting in the Detroit running game, and continues to keep finding the end zone with 13 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. The Jaguars are an average run defense at best and I’m back Williams to continue the form that has him averaging over 15 points per game in 2022.
Keenan Allen @ Las Vegas Raiders ($6,500), Amari Cooper @ Houston Texans ($6,400) or Christian Kirk @ Detroit Liosn ($6,300)
My Pick – Keenan Allen
Easy stack with Justin Herbert this week against that Raiders pass defense. He has 8 and 7 targets since returning to the line up in Week 11 and with Mike Williams likely out again, I see Allen’s point scoring arrow pointing way up this week.
Fire up Keenan Allen this week 🔥
— NerdBall Fantasy Football (@nerdballff) December 2, 2022
Allen Lazard @ Chicago Bears ($5,400), Garrett Wilson @ Minnesota Vikings ($5,300) or Tyler Boyd vs Kansas City Chiefs ($5,300)
My Pick – Garrett Wilson
A number one receiver for just over $5k salary and facing up against the 30th rated pass defense per my NEFF rankings? Yes please. Wilson has three games in his last four with at least 17.5 fantasy points and should continue to eat against the Vikings.
Cole Kmet vs Green Bay Packers ($3,800), Tyler Higbee vs Seattle Seahawks ($3,700) or Foster Moreau vs Los Angeles Chargers ($3,600)
My Pick – Cole Kmet
With Justin Fields returning after missing last week with a shoulder injury, Kmet is my choice from these three. Yes he’s super touchdown dependent, averaging just over three points per game when he doesn’t get in the end zone. But with no Darnell Mooney, I’m expecting him to take on an even bigger role in the offense, especially if Fields is more hesitant to run coming off the injury this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons ($2,600), New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings ($2,600) or Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers ($2,500)
My Pick – New York Jets
The Jets are the DST7 on the season overall and are averaging 9.0 PPG over their last four games. If they can find a way to keep Justin Jefferson in check and get after Kirk Cousins they could be a top value play this week.