Each week, I pick my favorite NFL player prop bets to build a five pick ’em parlay over on Underdog Fantasy. I track my progress and see how I do at the end of the year. Here are my best picks for Week 11.
The transition to Underdog’s over/unders has been tough on me. After a mediocre first week where I went 2 for 5, I have managed a not especially stellar 1 for 5 in my 2nd week. The show must go on.
I’ll keep it brief this week, suffice to say I am over-correcting on missing my on my over-fest.
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 115.5 rush yards @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills are still one of the best run defenses in the NFL, ranking 2nd in NEFF defensive rating. They are giving up the 2nd-fewest points to opposing running backs. Even with Taylor’s surge of late, I think this number is a little aggressive against this Buffalo squad.
Dak Prescott UNDER 300.5 pass yards @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are averaging about 260 passing yards against them through 10 games, and they haven’t given up 300 yards in the air since Josh Allen posted 315 passing yards against them in Week 5. Prescott has gone over 300 yards passing in only 3 of 8 games. Give me the under again.
Tyrod Taylor OVER 228.5 pass yards @ Tennessee Titans
Brandin Cooks OVER 68.5 receiving yards @ Tennessee Titans
We’ll double-up on some Texans props here.
The Titans have given up the most receiving yards to wide receivers and 2nd-most passing yards to QBs through 10 weeks. Taylor has gone over the 229 yards passing mark in 2 of 3 games. While the number for Cooks is pretty big, he’s 5 out of 9 for 69+ yard performances, and with Taylor back in Week 10 Cooks saw 13 targets. I’m betting big numbers from this duo.
A.J. Dillon UNDER 108.5 rush yards @ Minnesota Vikings
Season-long fantasy managers may be excited about Dillon getting a shot at a full workload here, but the Vikings are middle-of-the-pack in giving up yards to running backs this year. The Packers averaging 150 yards per game with Dillon and Aaron Jones does not make me super comfortable betting on Dillon to get over 108 in the lead role.
Week 10 Results
MISS: Jalen Hurts over 251.5 total yards, finished with 233 total yards
HIT: Devonta Smith over 60.5 receiving yards, finished with 66 receiving yards
MISS: Teddy Bridgewater over 264.5 yards, finished with 226 yards
MISS: Courtland Sutton over 57.5 Receiving yards, finished with 29 yards
MISS: Melvin Gordon over 49.5 rushing yards, finished with 45 rushing yards