Welcome to NFL DFS Pick One, a series in which, each week, I’ll pick a price range and position that might end up tilting the contest in your behavior and ultimately making a decision on who you should start. Last week we went thrift shopping at quarterback, and all three options ended up duds. Let’s over-correct and spend up at QB for Week 4, and take a look at three of the best young QBs in the league.
Our three candidates for this week: Patrick Mahomes at Philadelphia Eagles ($8,100 on DraftKings), Josh Allen vs Houston Texans ($8,000), and Kyler Murray at Los Angles Rams ($7,800).
3rd Place: Kyler Murray at Rams
The Rams held Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz under 250 yards passing before giving up 432 yards through the air to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady was forced to throw as the run game failed early and the Rams jumped out to a quick lead.
Fantasy QB1 Kyler Murray, and an Arizona Cardinals side that doesn’t bother much with even threatening to run the ball, travel to the smog city this weekend. Aaron Donald alone is enough to set off alarm bells when thinking about our DFS lineups. He and his supporting cast have picked up right where it left off in 2020, when the Rams defense led the league in fewest points allowed. After 3 weeks, LA finds themself still a top 10 pass defense per NEFF rating. Murray is good enough to still ball out against anyone, but the risk of the Rams defense pushes him to QB3 on this list.
2nd Place: Patrick Mahomes at Eagles
It’s tough to look at the Dallas Cowboy’s Monday Night thrashing of the Eagles and not get excited about Mahomes on the road in Philly. Dak Prescott didn’t throw for a ton of yardage as Dallas ran the ball well, but his three touchdown performance is nothing to sneeze at.
The Chiefs, though, start the year 1-2. That lone win came after narrowly escaping a budding power-house Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Kansas City’s schedule doesn’t get a lot easier at really any point this season, so Andy Reid and company are going to have to dial it up a notch.
Mahomes comes in at No. 2 on this list for this week. With Philly struggling against good teams (ie teams not named the Atlanta Falcons), I’m predicting the Chiefs take care of business fairly easily in this one, limiting what Mahomes has to do for the win.
1st Place: Josh Allen vs Texans
The only fear with Josh Allen facing the Texans this week is that Allen may only have to play in the first half. The Bills defense has been shutting down their opponents, keeping both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins under 200 yards of offense and giving up only 212 yards to the Washington Football team.
While the Texans have been an absolute embarrassment from a front-office standpoint, the team has been pretty scrappy early in the year. The loss of Tyrod Taylor may be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back and sends the Texans spiraling toward the bottom-feeder class of the NFL. And so Josh Allen should be able to cut through the Texans’ D like a hot knife through olive oil, making Allen my top pick in this tier.