Welcome to the Fantasy Football Rundown: a weekly article written by yours truly in which I give at least one sentence on every single fantasy relevant player for Week 11. Starts, sits, sleepers, busts, DFS plays, you name it, I talk about it here. Be warned, this is a beast of a piece. If you’re looking for a specific player, I recommend using your web browser’s search function to head straight to said player. Enjoy reading!
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under Points Scored: 48
New Orleans Saints
QB Trevor Siemian — Taysom Hill is dealing with a foot injury and is no longer a threat to Siemian. Siemian’s a mid-to-low QB2.
WRs Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris — Smith and Harris are effectively playing the same role. Smith is in the slot 59% of the time and on the perimeter 38.6% of the time with an average depth of target (aDot) of 9.0 yards (PFF.com) over the last two weeks. Harris’ slot rate is 42.9% during that span and his perimeter usage is 47.6%. He’s got an aDot of 9.9. Both men have seen 11 targets come their way over the last two weeks. Harris has a slight edge in leagues that reward return production (215 combined return yards in Weeks 9 and 10) and carries a 2 to 1 advantage in red zone targets over Smith (PFF.com). Philly’s pass defense NEFF rating of 41.9% ranks 27th, giving the intermediate-depth duo access to a top-48 WR ranking.
WR Marquez Callaway — Callaway is basically a perimeter wind-sprinter at this point. His 14.2 average targeted air yards (TAY) rank 9th in the league. Unfortunately for him, Philly’s 6% explosive pass play rate is tied for the 2nd lowest mark in the league (SharpFootballStats.com). Fantasy WR8.
TE Adam Trautman — Trautman is now a real receiving threat in the Saints’ offense, running between 23-30 routes and seeing 5-7 targets per game over the last three weeks (PFF.com). Philly’s defense is notoriously bad at covering tight ends. Their 15.4 .5PPR TE PPG allowed are 2nd most in the NFL. Fire up Trautman as a high-end TE2 streaming option this week if need be.
RB Mark Ingram — The best thing we can do is trust the medical professionals when it comes to Alvin Kamara’s MCL sprain. Dr. Edwin Porras of FantasyPoints.com expects Kamara to return in either Week 12 or 13, which leaves Ingram to once again handle bellcow duties for New Orleans. Last week, Ingram played on 85% of snaps, handled 14 carries which he took for 47 yards and 1 touchdown, tied for the team-lead in targets with 7 and caught 4 of those passes for a whopping 61 yards. Now-No. 2 back Dwayne Washington and his two carries were a complete non-factor. Ingram should put the hurt on Philly’s dreadful linebacker corps. The Eagles are T-22nd in run defense NEFF rating and are giving up 23.9 .5PPR RB PPG, 9th most in the NFL. Incredibly, their RB rushing yards allowed (103), RB targets allowed (8.1), and RB receptions (6.8) allowed per game are all 9th most as well. Correspondingly, Ingram has been ranked as the overall RB9 this week.
Alvin Kamara was not at practice for the Saints today after being limited on Wednesday. This is obviously not a good development as the running back works his way back from an MCL sprain. What does it mean? We cover that and more on The Dot presented by Matt Bowers Auto Group. pic.twitter.com/H71GCbE0Wf
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) November 18, 2021
QB Jalen Hurts — New Orleans’ defense played a fantastic game against Tennessee last week, forcing Ryan Tannehill to progress far further through his reads that he would’ve liked; 11 Titans were targeted in Week 10. Hurts has not yet developed into a passer that could get that many pass catchers involved, relying on his legs whenever things go FUBAR. Despite missing stud DL David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport for a combined 10 games and ILB Kwon Alexander for 4 more, New Orleans has limited opposing offenses to just 657 rushing yards, the fewest in the NFL. For quarterbacks specifically, NOLA is holding opposing signal callers to just 14.2 rushing yards per game. It’s fair to point out that they haven’t faced a dual threat like Hurts but the fact remains, this will be the Philly passer’s toughest outing of the year. He’s a borderline QB1/2 for Week 11.
WR DeVonta Smith — Hyper-efficient over the last two weeks, Smith’s caught 9-of-12 targets for 184 yards and 3 touchdowns. One would prefer better volume but Smith is showing he’s a real-deal NFL X-receiver. With TE Dallas Goedert’s status up in the air (concussion), Smith is in-line for another target-leader outing this week. Smith’s perimeter/slot usage is fairly similar to that of Tennessee’s A.J. Brown, who had a very tough go against the Saints last week though so some cold water must be poured on Smith-expectations. Saints stud slot CB/safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (IR) will be out but they’ve got the personnel to blanket Smith in coverage. He’s a high-floor WR3.
WR Quez Watkins — Watkins was the clear beneficiary of Goedert’s first-quarter exit last week. The speedy slot makes for a high-end WR4 in this one, given the aforementioned absence of slot CB Gardner-Johnson.
WR Jalen Reagor — Professional sideline sprinter.
TE Jack Stoll — Slow-footed and vertically challenged, Stoll flaccidly replaced Goedert in the lineup last week.
RB Miles Sanders — We’re in wait-and-see mode. If active, he’ll be a borderline RB2/3. Workload for a smash day will be there but it’s a brutal match-up. Howard would likely stay involved at the goal-line. Scott and Gainwell may split pass catching duties. If Sanders is inactive, Jordan Howard and Boston Scott will be RB3s.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Over/Under Points Scored: 44
QB Tua Tagovailoa — Tua’s prepped to plow vs. safety-less Jets’ secondary–both FS Marcus Maye and SS Lamarcus Joyner are now on IR. Bills’ TE Dawson Knox flopped against NYJ last week but with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle operating as the key components of the ‘Fins’ passing game, this is a dynamic that Miami will take advantage of. Tua is a mid-to-high QB2 this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki — As mentioned above, this is a fantastic slot-match-up Waddle is a WR3, Gesicki is a top-5 TE this week.
WR Albert Wilson — The only other Dolphins WR seeing meaningful time (and playing well). Jets perimeter corners have been quite friendly to opposing WRs. Wilson is a boom/bust WR5 but deserves strong DFS consideration in a Miami stack.
RB Myles Gaskin — Gaskin is not a good rusher:
Myles Gaskin somehow has 34 carries for 65 yards the last two weeks. Seems hard to do.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 16, 2021
New York Jets
QB Joe Flacco — For all of the talent at CB that the Dolphins grade out as just the 18th best in pass defense NEFF rating and opposing QBs are tagging them for 20.1 FPPG, T-8th most in the NFL. Flacco is quietly a high-floor/high-ceiling QB2 streamer.
WR Corey Davis — Davis largely plays on the perimeter but should run 20% or so of his routes in the slot. Miami’s patchwork slot coverage has been pathetic with do-it-all DB Jason McCourty on IR. Davis will run the majority of his routes against either Byron Jones or Xavien Howard though and few of his teammates have far softer overall match-ups. Davis is just a mid-tier WR3 this week with little chance of a true blowup performance.
WR Elijah Moore — Moore’s snap share has been capped around 55-60% as of late, running roughly 75% of routes on the perimeter and 25% in the slot. Over the last three weeks though, Moore’s caught 16-of-19 targets for 195 yards and 3 touchdowns. That kind of production is too good for Robert Saleh to keep ignoring and the team has acknowledged that Moore’s proper role is as the primary slot receiver. Starting slot man Jamison Crowder has caught 16-of-22 targets for 142 scoreless yards and remains the main obstacle to Moore’s fantasy ceiling. Treat Moore as largely indistinguishable from Corey Davis in fantasy: mid-tier WR3.
WR Jamison Crowder — Crowder has the best matchup of the bunch. His 3.5-yard aDot renders him just a high-floor WR4 though.
TE Ryan Griffin — Miami’s allowing 13.1 .5PPR TE PPG, T-7th most in the NFL and fellow TE Tyler Kroft is on IR. Griffin is a viable TE2 streamer.
RBs Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, and Tevin Coleman — Coleman took a bite out of Carter and Johnson’s usage in his return from a multi-week hamstring injury. Carter retained his lead back role but his 52% snaps share was the lowest since Week 5. Johnson saw 32% of the snaps while Coleman took 22%. From a rushing perspective, Carter kept a comfortable lead. His 16 carries towered over Johnson’s 2 and Coleman’s 4. Carter’s 18 routes (PFF.com) and 6 targets were decent, as were Johnson’s 17 routes and 8 targets. Coleman’s 9 routes and 3 targets were not insignificant though. On the whole, Carter drops to the low-end RB2 range against a Dolphins’ front-seven that currently ranks 19th in run defense NEFF rating. Johnson’s appears to just be a pass catching back at this point, with a couple carries sprinkled on top. He’s a borderline RB3/4. Coleman not redraft relevant.
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers
Over/Under Points Scored: 43
Washington Football Team
QB Taylor Heinicke — Injuries and suspensions kept the Panthers’ defense from jelling early in the year. They’re on crushing it now though. Heinicke’s a back-end QB2.
WR Terry McLaurin — A handful of WRs have found success against this DB group but it was either early in the year or with a stud sidekick in tow. For McLaurin, we know the former is inapplicable. The latter may be with the apparent ascension of DeAndre Carter–we’ve been down that road before though. McLaurin is a talent-based WR3.
WR DeAndre Carter — 6-of-12 for 107 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns over WFT’s last two games and 69 return yards on top, Carter’s been on fire as of late. Trusting special teamers to convert to full-time WR can sometimes be foolhardy but collegiate return production is often a sign of good things to come (Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown, and Tyler Lockett to name a few). Given the matchup, Carter can’t be trusted to return safe redraft value this week but if you need a Hail Mary DFS play, he’s your guy. Carter needs to be rostered in 12-team formats right now. The NFL’s kick return leader (586 yards) has all the potential in the world but we need to see it for another week or two to believe it. Carter has a chance to flame the Seattle perimeter CBs in Week 12. This week he’s a volatile WR6.
WR Dyami Brown — Brown is off the injury report for the first time in ages. This isn’t the matchup to start him in though. Bench stash in 12-team leagues.
WR Adam Humpries — Should not be rostered.
TEs Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones — Thomas (hamstring/IR) and RSJ (hip) both look like they’re going to miss this one.
RB Antonio Gibson — Sell high after last week. Gibson’s fantasy outing looked good last but we know his shin issue isn’t going away any time soon and it’s been evident from a number of instances this year that Washington is playing fast and loose with injuries. The WFT lead back took a whopping 24 carries for just 64 rushing yards–and 2 touchdowns–against Tampa Bay in Week 10. The latter makes the former look a whole lot better. Gibson also wasn’t meaningfully involved as a pass catcher either, with just two targets to his name. Carolina’s front-seven ranks 6th in run defense NEFF rating. Gibson is an RB3 with a bottomless hole floor.
RB J.D. McKissic — Carolina is limiting running backs to both the fewest receptions per game, 3.6, and receiving yards per game, 24.4. JDM is an RB5.
QB Cam Newton — Cam’s back and Washington’s down LB Jon Bostic, edge rusher Montez Sweat, and DL Chase Young. He’s the QB13 this week with overall QB1 upside.
WR D.J. Moore — Screaming buy-low. Newton could flop if his shoulder craps out but then you’re just stuck with the Moore from a week ago–a great WR with a questionable QB. WFT is 28th in pass defense NEFF rating and currently allowing the 2nd most .5PPR WR PPG, 35.8. He’s a locked-in WR2.
WR Robby Anderson — Also a screaming buy-low. It literally can’t get any worse and we know that for Anderson, talent isn’t really the issue. In 2015 and 2016, Cam’s deep threat, Ted Ginn Jr. posted a combined 1,491 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. If Cam can muster something close to that performance, Anderson hits as a borderline WR3/4. Start him as a mid-to-low version of the latter this week.
WRs Brandon Zylstra and Terrace Marshall Jr. — Zylstra is somehow winning the battle for the starting slot receiver job right now. Don’t start either player.
TEs Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas — Former CAR TE Greg Olsen was integral to Cam’s success for years. Nether can be started in redraft this week but either could be stashed on a bench. Tremble’s the likely favorite. Get one of them into a DFS contrarian lineup this week though.
RB Christian McCaffrey — Overall RB1. CMC notably has notably played on 49% and 59% of snaps since his return from IR. That’s, smartly, a far cry from the 99% of snaps that were so common for much of his career.
Not necessarily. CMC & Cam played a full season together in 2018.
• 219-1098-7 rushing
• 107-867-6 receiving
Finished RB3 in .5PPR. https://t.co/0lAgr1NwQh
— NerdBall Fantasy Football (@nerdballff) November 14, 2021
RBs Ameer Abdullah and Chuba Hubbard — Both played on 21% of the Week 10 snaps and handled 9 carries apiece. Abdullah caught all 4 of his targets though, taking them for a respectable 27 yards. Hubbard only ran seven routes (PFF.com) though–which simultaneously tells us that CMC is still is the man and that when Abdullah steps on the field, they intend to use him. Hubbard was not targeted but did score from five-yards out. Abdullah’s an RB4, Hubbard’s an RB5.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Over/Under Points Scored: 49.5
QB Carson Wentz — Massive +7.5 road dogs, game script could bail Wentz out of a matchup with the league’s best defense but it’s probably best to sit him in single-QB leagues. The Colts are also just 19th in pass rate when trailing by 7+ points (SharpFootballStats.com) so not even game script is likely to help him much. The Bills are No. 1 in pass defense NEFF rating (66.7%), No. 1 in QB pressure rate (30.6%), and are successfully limiting opposing signal callers to just 12.3 FPPG, fewest in the NFL. He’s a low-end QB2.
WR Michael Pittman Jr. — Pittman has been outrageously efficient on moderate usage but this isn’t the match-up to rely on him. He’s a high-floor WR3 here.
WR Zach Pascal — Fantasy WR6.
WR T.Y. Hilton — Fantasy WR6.
TE Mo Alie-Cox — Fantasy TE3.
TE Jack Doyle — Fantasy TE3.
RB Jonathan Taylor — On average, the Colts seem to want to send Taylor out on 15 routes and throw in the ball 3 or so times. Those numbers will probably increase a tad in this one but we call Nyheim Hines the pass catching specialist for a reason. He’s a back-end RB1.
RB Nyheim Hines — Back-end RB3.
QB Josh Allen — Gamescript doesn’t affect Allen:
Here are PROE leaderboards overall on the season, since Week 7, and in the red zone:
— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) November 16, 2021
All Buffalo does is throw and the Colts have been missing key components of their pass defense this year. Starting CB T.J. Carrie may return this week after being activated off of IR. It’s not a given though. Allen is a top-3 QB this week.
WR Stefon Diggs — Diggs was clearly the focal point of last week’s game plan. His 13 targets were 10 more than any other Bill and he caught 8 of them for 162 yards and 1 touchdown. Diggs should work the Indy CB group just the same–the Colts are allowing 34.2 .5PPR WR PPG, 3rd most in the NFL. He’s a top-3 WR this week.
WRs Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie — Due to a confusing collection of injuries and match-ups, difference makers TE Dawson Knox (hand) and slot WR Cole Beasley (ribs) have barely played over the last few weeks. The roles of Sanders, Davis, and McKenzie have fluctuated as a result. Best educated guesses for Week 11:
- Sanders is a no-show. Indy, while getting waxed by WRs, is limiting opponents to explosive pass plays just 8% of the time, T-20th lowest in the league (SharpFootballStats.com). This does not bode well for perimeter/downfield/Z-receiver Sanders.
- We find out how bad Beasley’s rib injury is this week. He’s always featured against zone coverage units and Indy skews heavily towards zone. Davis has operated as his direct backup as of late, yet the team is using him as a vertical threat rather than as Beasley’s short-area replacement. Both are WR5s but one will have immense upside.
- McKenzie is just a DFS/Hail Mary play.
TE Dawson Knox — Knox was eased in last week in his return from a hand injury but Indy is allowing the 5th most .5PPR TE PPG, 13.7. Mid-tier TE1.
RBs Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida — Breida will be a non-factor this week. The team didn’t know if Moss would clear the concussion protocol so they incorporated Breida into the game plan and stuck with it for part of Week 10’s contest. Moss will operate as the lead back in a pass-heavy offense while Singletary changes the pace. Moss is a high-floor RB3, Singletary is an RB4.
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Brown
Over/Under Points Scored: 45
QB Tim Boyle — Doesn’t look like Jared Goff (oblique) is going to play this week. Cleveland will likely be missing slot CB Troy Hill but the defense as a whole will eat Boyle alive. He’s a fantasy QB3.
WR Kalif Raymond — Fantasy WR7.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown — St. Brown might be able to take advantage of CB Hill’s absence but he’s no better than a WR6.
Trinity Benson — Ignore.
TE T.J. Hockenson — Boom/bust TE2.
RB D’Andre Swift — Bank on double-digit carries and double-digit targets. Borderline RB1/2.
RB Jamaal Williams — Williams looks like he’s ready to return from a quad injury while Jermar Jefferson is set to miss time (ankle). He’ll be of little use in this one though. Back-end RB4.
QB Baker Mayfield — He’s playing through foot, shoulder, knee injuries. Do not start him, even in a great matchup.
WR Jarvis Landry — Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin) and Anthony Schwartz (concussion) are both highly questionable to play. Landry should see at least eight targets. He’s a high-floor WR4.
WR Rashard Higgins — Higgins will be thrust into some sort of role here but can’t be relied upon.
TEs Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant — Given the WR injuries and the soft defensive match-up, Hooper can be started as a TE2. Njoku’s a DFS dart throw.
RB Nick Chubb — Chubb is expected to clear the COVID-19 protocol but it’s taken him quite some time to clear it despite being vaccinated, which means he had breakthrough symptoms. For now, he’s a RB1 but monitor news on him. It’s possible the team opts to rest him in-game as much as they can.
RB/WR Demetric Felton — Felton could see passing game action given the litany of WR injuries. Too shaky of a role to bank on though.
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under Points Scored: 46.5
San Francisco 49ers
QB Jimmy Garoppolo — Last week Garoppolo went 15-of-19 for 182 yards and 2-touchdowns, finishing as the fantasy QB13, while Eli Mitchell, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Deebo Samuel combined for 32 carries. That performance is indicative of how SF will try to win this week as seven-point road favorites. Garoppolo should pick apart Jacksonville’s 31st ranked pass defense per NEFF rating. Due to a likely lack of volume, his ceiling is capped though.
WR Deebo Samuel — As expected, the team couldn’t funnel double-digit targets with George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk in tow. They did, however, get him up to 10 touches by handing the ball off to him 5 times:
— NerdBall Fantasy Football (@nerdballff) November 16, 2021
Samuel can’t be considered as anything other than a fantasy WR1 from here on out.
WR Brandon Aiyuk — High-end WR3.
WR Jauan Jennings — Fantasy WR7.
TE George Kittle — Elite TE1.
RBs Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. — Someone’s going to smash. Kyle Shanahan has maintained the belief that Mitchell (finger, ribs) can play on Sunday despite there being procedural evidence to the contrary regarding Mitchell finger repair. There are also conflicting reports saying Mitchell practiced in a non-contact jersey on Thursday which the official team report says he did not practice at all. If active, he’s a high-end RB2 while Wilson would be a mid-tier RB3. If Mitchell is inactive, Wilson slides in as a mid-to-high RB2.
Update 11/20/21: Elijah Mitchell (finger) is doubtful to play. Jeff Wilson Jr. should see 18+ touches against a the Jags this week, which elevates him well into the high-end RB2 ranks. Kyle Juszczyk is a viable RB4 play with a touch of RB3 potential in full-point PPR leagues. Trey Sermon and Trenton Cannon have been added to the back-end of the RB ranks.
FB Kyle Juszczyk — RB JaMycal Hasty is highly unlikely to play this week. Assuming that’s the case, “Juice” would be a viable RB5 in full-point PPR leagues, especially if Mitchell sits as well.
Trevor Lawrence — Lawrence can’t be trusted as anything more than a mid-to-low QB2 this week.
WR Marvin Jones Jr. — Fantasy WR4.
WR Jamal Agnew — Agnew’s being used as a slot receiver, in the return game, and as a ball carrier. SF slot CB K’Waun Williams is nothing to write home about. Agnew is now the most fantasy-friendly Jags WR. Like Jones, he’s a fantasy WR4 though.
WR Laviska Shenault — Check back next season.
TE Dan Arnold — High-floor TE1. Unless you have an elite TE, put Arnold in the lineup and forget about it.
RB James Robinson — Robinson (heel, knee) was somewhat eased in last week but still handled the vast majority of RB touches (12 carries, 5 targets). He remains a back-end RB1.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Over/Under Points Scored: 45
QB Tyrod Taylor — Fantasy QB3. Tennessee’s front-seven will devour him.
WR Brandin Cooks — Fantasy WR3. Non-stop, ugly targets incoming.
QB Ryan Tannehill — The Titans are -10.5 home favorites. They’ve a got a decent shot at covering the spread and Tannehill will be integral in them doing so. He’s a mid-to-low QB1.
WR A.J. Brown — AJB’s last two games against the Texans: 5-of-7 for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns, 10-of-11 for 151 yards and 1 touchdown. Elite WR1.
WR Marcus Johnson — Called this one last week. MJ is Julio Jones’ direct backup:
–#Titans #MarcusJohnson needs to be rostered in 12-team leagues now.
-Some might recall (in off-season window before TEN acquired Julio), @evansilva described #AJBrown's expected 2021 workload as "Nuclear bomb of targets incoming"… We're back to that point w/ him. Elite WR1. https://t.co/85KSfXVSY3
— Nic Bodiford (@Ginger__Nic) November 13, 2021
Johnson caught 5-of-6 Week 10 targets for 100 yards and added 54 return yards on top. He’s a WR3 in this one.
WRs Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers — NWI and Rogers tag-teamed the primary slot receiver gig last week with the former running slightly ahead of the latter. Both are boom/bust WR5s.
TEs Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt — All 3 ran 14 routes last week (PFF.com) but Swaim’s stolen Tannehill’s eye for the time being as he’s seen 14 targets over the last 3 weeks–the other 2 saw a combined 6. Houston’s allowing 14.1 .5PPR TE PPG, 4th most in the NFL. Swaim is a viable TE2 streaming option but the route totals do tell us he’s got a trapdoor floor. Start him if necessary.
RBs D’Onta Foreman, Adrian Peterson, and Jeremy McNichols — Foreman’s set for a face-off with the team that drafted him in the round 3 of the 2017 NFL Draft. To be clear, Foreman isn’t likely to tear the roof off against the Texans but the revenge narrative is alive and well and the Titans’ coaching staff did hand Foreman the backfield reins last week after seeing Peterson’s lackluster lead back performance in Week 9. Houston’s run defense is as bad as it gets, having allowed 1,232 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, both 2nd-most in the NFL. Peterson and McNichols will be factors but if one is in need of a flex play, Foreman can be started as a back-end RB3. The other two are RB4s. McNichols should be stashed in 12-team leagues.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under Points Scored: 48.5
Green Bay Packers
QB Aaron Rodgers — Rodgers played a bad game still fatigued from his bout with COVID-19 last week and managed to suffer a toe injury in the process. We don’t have clarity as to what it is but it’s very likely to limit his movement as there are only so many injuries toes can suffer. Most of them are a pain. He’s a QB1 against a banged up and undermanned Vikings defense
WR Davante Adams — Last two games against Minnesota: 14-of-17 for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns, 7-of-11 for 53 yards and 3 touchdowns. Elite WR1.
WR Randall Cobb — WR7.
WR Allen Lazard — Likely to miss (shoulder).
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling — MVS showed up on the injury report mid-week. Not good.
TE Josiah Deguara — Not relevant.
RB A.J. Dillon — Has flashed as both a rusher and receiver this year and should see 20+ touches against a Vikings front missing both DE Danielle Hunter and DL Michael Pierce. Top-5 RB.
RB Patrick Taylor — 12-team league bench stash.
QB Kirk Cousins — Top-12 QB this week. Green Bay’s defense is so injury-riddled that the loss of in-season signee DE Whitney Mercillus is a big deal.
WR Justin Jefferson — Will run free with CB Jaire Alexander on IR.
WR Adam Thielen — Has had mixed results against this team over the last few years but peaks like 2020’s 6-of -8 for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns are tough to ignore. He’s a safe fantasy WR2.
WR K.J. Osborn — Osborn has lost out on the No. 3 pass catcher job at this point. It’s TE Tyler Conklin’s now. Osborn is a WR7.
TE Tyler Conklin — Conklin’s a TE1 once again. Packers’ SS Darnell Savage was added to the injury report with an ankle injury.
RB Dalvin Cook — Green Bay is 26th in run defense NEFF rating. Top-3 RB.
RB Alexander Mattison — Premier primary bellcow backup.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Over/Under Points Scored: 45
QB Lamar Jackson — Chicago’s explosive pass plays allowed rate of 10% through 10 week is T-4th most in the NFL (SharpFootballStats.com). Lamar and Co. are gonna get busy like Sean Paul. Overall QB1.
Update 11/20/21: Marquise Brown has been downgraded to Out (thigh) and Adam Schefter is reporting that QB Lamar Jackson now 50/50 to play due to an illness. Rashod Bateman moves up into the WR2 ranks and has WR1 upside if Jackson can play.
WR Marquise Brown — Brown was averaging 7.6 targets per game in Weeks 1-5, before Rashod Bateman entered the lineup from Injured Reserve. Since Bateman saddled up, Brown’s averaged a whopping 11 targets per game. That’s what having a real X-receiver on the roster does for him. Chicago free safety Eddie Jackson is also dealing with a hamstring injury. Brown is a locked-in WR1.
WR Rashod Bateman — Rookie WR Bateman is averaging 7 targets per game (6, 6, 8, and 8), 4.5 receptions, and 60.25 receiving yards. He’s yet to find the end zone. When he does, his buy-low window closes. Trade for him now.
WRs Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins — Duvernay’s run 87.1% of his routes in the slot, on a 51% snap share, since the team’s Week 8 bye. Watkins was thought to be a threat to Duvernay’s usage but Watkins’ Week 10 return from a multi-week hamstring injury resulted in one catch on three targets for seven yards and one lost fumble. Duvernay garners WR4 status ahead of his bout with Bears’ underwhelming slot CB Duke Shelley.
TE Mark Andrews — Elite TE1.
RBs Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray — Murray was operating as the lead back before a nasty high-ankle sprain delivered him a multi-week absence. Freeman took over from there and has played mildly well. Freeman and Murray should both get involved though. Facing the Bears’ 22nd ranked run defense per NEFF rating, both can be started as high-floor RB3s.
QB Justin Fields — The Bears are +6.5 underdogs. Fields should have ample opportunity to put both his arm and legs to use. He’s a top-15 QB with QB1 upside.
WR Darnell Mooney — Allen Robinson (hamstring) won’t play this week. Downfield WR Mooney eat against a Baltimore defense that’s allowing explosive pass plays on 12% of pass attempts, T-2nd most in the league (SharpFootballStats.com). He’s a WR3.
WR Marquise Goodwin — Fantasy WR7.
WR Jakeem Grant — Fantasy WR7.
TE Cole Kmet — Baltimore’s 14.7 .5PPR TE PPG allowed are 3rd most in the NFL. Kmet is a high-end TE2.
RB David Montgomery — Even after Khalil Herbert’s explosive fill-in stretch, the team gave him just four carries in Montgomery’s return from Injured Reserve. Ravens’ run stuffer DL Brandon Williams is still not practicing due to a shoulder injury. Montgomery’s a mid-to-high RB2.
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under Points Scored: 49
QB Joe Burrow — The Bengals are beautifully No. 5 in pass rate over expectation since Week 7 and No. 1 in the red zone overall (per Mike Leone). Burrow’s a no-brainer fantasy QB1.
WR Ja’Marr Chase — In Week 9, his worst game of the year, Chase still saw 13 targets come his way. Locked-in WR1.
WR Tee Higgins — Back-end WR2 with a rock-solid role.
WR Tyler Boyd — Boyd’s box score success is typically tied to the quality of slot corner lining up across from him. Vegas’ Nate Hobbs isn’t great, but he’s not bad either. He’s a WR5 this week.
TE C.J. Uzomah — Like Boyd, Uzomah’s outcomes are more or less dependent on the competition and we’ve had success calling those performances in advance.This is one such outing; LV is the most fantasy-friendly defense to opposing tight ends, surrendering an average of 15.7 .5PPR TE PPG. He’s a TE1 this week.
Las Vegas Raiders
QB Derek Carr — Carr and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow are going to light it up. Slot CB Mike Hilton is downright dreadful in coverage and Renfrow’s been on fire since Henry Ruggs was cut two weeks ago. Carr’s a mid-tier QB1.
WR Hunter Renfrow — As mentioned above, the route running dynamo should eviscerate slot CB Hilton. He’s a high-end WR2.
WR Bryan Edwards — Edwards is now a viable WR4.
WR DeSean Jackson — Not a recommended start. You’re betting on a low-volume player. It’s a decent match-up but he’s got zero floor value. WR6.
TE Darren Waller — Elite TE1.
RB Josh Jacobs — The Bengals are seventh in run defense NEFF rating and Jacobs largely operates as a one-dimensional north/south rusher. He’s a fantasy RB3.
RB Kenyan Drake — Drake’s an RB4 here as Cincy’s 8 RB receptions allowed per game are the most in the NFL and their 61 RB receiving yards per game are 4th most.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under Points Scored: 49.5
QB Kyler Murray — Murray (ankle) looks like he might actually be able to suit up this week. If active, he may be running free in the pocket as Seattle’s do-it-all safety Jamal Adams appears to have suffered a groin strain during Thursday’s practice.
Update 11/20/21: Rumblings indicate Colt McCoy may be the starter again in Week 11. Monitor news closely.
WR Christian Kirk — Kirk’s going to be the de facto No. 1 WR again this week as DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) is highly unlikely to play. Seattle slot CB Ugo Amadi has been a player to target all year and this week is no different. Kirk’s a locked-in WR2.
WR A.J. Green — Green should rack up routes on the perimeter vs. Seattle’s 23rd ranked pass defense per NEFF. He’s a very safe WR3.
WR Rondale Moore — The backup slot receiver/occasional ball carrier owns an average air yards per target mark of just 1.9-yards–the lowest such mark in the NFL through 10 weeks. He’s extremely talented but you can’t trust that kind of usage in a redraft lineup. He’s a WR6/contrarian DFS play.
WR Antoine Wesley — Largely irrelevant.
TE Zach Ertz — Has seen between four and six targets in all four games with Arizona. He’s a mid-tier TE2 who would benefit greatly if SS Jamal Adams does indeed sit.
RB James Conner — Chase Edmonds is on IR and No. 2 RB Eno Benjamin is dealing with a groin injury. Top-15 fantasy RB.
QB Russell Wilson — Wilson clearly has not yet re-taught himself how to throw a ball with his surgically repaired middle finger. He’s a low-end QB2 until he proves otherwise.
WR D.K. Metcalf — Cardinals’ perimeter corners Marco Wilson and Robert Alford can be had by a player like Metcalf and safety Budda Baker downgraded from LP to DNP on Thursday (heel). He’s not playing. Metcalf is a highly volatile WR2 with a great match-up.
WR Tyler Lockett — High-end WR4.
WR Freddie Swain — Not relevant with this version of Russell Wilson.
TE Gerald Everett — Everett is clearly Wilson’s preferred safety blanket. The veteran tight end caught 8-of-8 for 63 yards last week. Expect a high-floor, TE2 outing here.
RBs DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer — There’s no clear indication that Chris Carson’s return is imminent (neck) and Alex Collins went from LP to DNP on Thursday (groin). Dallas and Homer have flip-flopped pass catching back responsibilities this year. One of them will get the start. It’s unclear who that will be.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under Points Scored: 55.5
QB Dak Prescott — Top-5 fantasy QB.
WR CeeDee Lamb — Lamb ran 69.6% of his routes from the slot (PFF.com) last week with Michael Gallup back from a multi-week absence and slot coverage has been a problem for Kansas City. Lamb’s a top-5 WR.
Update 11/19/21: Amari Cooper tested positive for COVID-19 and is unvaccinated. He will miss both Weeks 11 and 12. CeeDee Lamb is Top5 WR at worst this week, Michael Gallup cemented as Top36 WR, likely Top24 vs KC. Dalton Schultz back to high-end TE1 status.
WR Amari Cooper — Cooper ran 37.1% of his routes in the slot so he’ll get a bump too but it’s not as though a night of perimeter routes would be a bad thing either. KC is 27th in pass defense NEFF rating while giving up 30.5 .5PPR WR PPG, T-10th most in the NFL this year. Cooper is also a top-12 WR play.
WR Michael Gallup — Gallup was eased in last week. The field stretcher was in on on 53% of the snaps and had 5 targets come his way. Expect those numbers to slowly rise. His number will certainly be called in this one but he plays a volatile role and he’s on a snap count. He’s a borderline WR3/4.
TE Dalton Schultz — Schultz’s role might be getting scaled back with Gallup off of IR. We’ll know for sure if they don’t feature him this week against a KC D allowing 12.8 .5PPR TE PPG, 9th most in the NFL.
RB Ezekiel Elliott — KC’s defense has begun to improve with standout defensive players DL Chris Jones and LB Anthony Hitchens getting healthy and Tony Pollard has a role of his own here. Elliott is a mid-to-high RB1.
RB Tony Pollard — High-floor RB3.
Kansas City Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes — He’s back. Top-5 QB.
Tyreek Hill — Elite WR1.
Byron Pringle — The Mecole Hardman Dream is over. Pringle ran 11 more routes (PFF.com) than all non-Hill receivers and finished 4th on the team in targets, going 4-of-5 for 46 and 1. He’s a borderline WR4/5.
TE Travis Kelce — Elite TE1.
RB Darrel Williams — Andy Reid is now indicating that the team might wait until after KC’s Week 12 bye to activate Clyde Edwards-Helaire off of Injured Reserve. Williams is a mid-to-high RB2 with easy top-12 upside.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under Points Scored: 47
QB Ben Roethlisberger — Roethlisberger is on the COVID-19/Reserve List but is vaccinated and may be able to clear the COVID-19 protocol in time. If active, he could make a little noise with Chargers’ DL Jerry Tillery also on the COVID-19/Reserve List and edge rusher Joey Bosa designated as a close contact. Still Roethlisberger’s still just a borderline QB2/3.
WR Diontae Johnson — Johnson’s the only safe play here and his volume keeps him viable as a high-end WR2.
WRs James Washington, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Chase Claypool — The whole WR landscape shuffles depending on Claypool’s availability. Initially his toe injury was talked about as a multi-week issue but he’s practicing in a limited fashion this week. Stay tuned.
TE Pat Freiermuth — LAC is allowing 13.3 .5PPR TE PPG, 6th most in the NFL and Freiermuth still saw 9 targets last week even with Eric Ebron back in the lineup. He’s a high-floor TE1.
Per our NEFF ratings, the #Chargers have the worst run defense in the league, allowing over 120 yds per game to backs this season.
Great week for Najee Harris managers 🔥 pic.twitter.com/UT7Tg3PRk4
— NerdBall Fantasy Football (@nerdballff) November 18, 2021
Los Angeles Chargers
QB Justin Herbert — Herbert was a full participant in Thursday’s practice despite being listed with an oblique injury. He seems fine but keep an eye on it. Pittsburgh is likely to be without stud CB Joe Haden (foot), All-Pro pass rusher T.J. Watt (knee), and safety dynamo Minkah Fitzpatrick (COVID-19). Herbert’s a top-5 QB.
WR Keenan Allen — Allen is the .5PPR WR6 in scoring since LAC’s Week 7 bye. Locked-in WR1.
WR Mike Williams — Can’t-miss bounce-back opportunity. He’s a WR2.
WR Josh Palmer — Palmer has taken over as the No. 3 WR in LA. He’s just WR6 in fantasy right now but should be rostered in 12-team leagues. Fire him up as a contrarian DFS option.
TE Donald Parham — TE2.
TE Jared Cook — TE2.
RB Austin Ekeler — Locked-in RB1.
RB Justin Jackson — Jackson’s back from his quad injury and should resume the No. 2 RB job this week.